Currently, super-cheap solar panels will be slightly more expensive and the federal home battery rebate will buy less capacity as changes to China’s export tax rebates are passed on to Australian solar buyers.
Why might panel and battery prices rise?
Starting April 1, 2026, the Chinese government will completely eliminate the country’s VAT export rebates for solar photovoltaic products. Previously, the export tax rebate for PV products was reduced from 13% to 9% in December 2024.
For batteries, VAT export rebates will be reduced from 9% to 6% between April and December 2026 and will be completely eliminated from January 1, 2027.
What impact will this have?
A Reuters report said manufacturers used the rebates as a discount for foreign buyers. If this were also the case in Australia, wholesale prices for panels could rise by 9% and batteries by 3% from April 1; Battery prices will increase by another 6% starting early next year.
Solar module prices
Fortunately, panel prices are currently very, very cheap. After the introduction of VAT refunds they will still be very, very cheap.
For example, low-cost (but high-quality) Chinese 440-watt panels listed in the SolarQuotes solar panel comparison chart are generally around $120 to $140 MSRP.
If the typical company applies a 24% gross margin to wholesale pricing, a 9% increase increases the MSRP range to about $130 to $152. A 10 kW solar system consists of approximately 23 modules (10.12 kW total); For such a system the panels cost:
- Currently $2,760 to $3,220
- After sales tax refund changes – $2,990 – $3,419
So a 10 kW system only costs up to a few hundred dollars more.
Home battery prices
When it comes to batteries, it’s a little more complicated because the prices are the same everywhere. But to use an example of the Sungrow SBR HV 16 kWh; Our battery comparison table currently shows a value of $6,720. This is the MSRP, including federal discount and excluding installation.
After April’s changes, such a battery could cost about $200 more – about $6,921. But the bigger hit will come in January next year, when the same battery could cost around $600 more than it does now; ~$7,324.
In addition, there are three discounts in the CHBP (Cheaper Home Batteries Program) rebate between January 1st of this year and January 1st of next year. The CHBP reduction in May 2026 alone will increase the cost of this battery by approximately $1,800 compared to December 2025; even without taking into account any effects of the VAT refund.
Will inverter prices also rise?
It is not clear to me whether solar inverters fall under the definition of “photovoltaic products” in terms of VAT refund reduction in China, but it is likely. If so, inverter prices could also increase by 9% after April 1st; For premium models, that adds up to a few hundred dollars.
Overall effect
For a full 10kW solar + 16kWh Sungrow battery system, after accounting for China’s VAT rebate reduction and CHP reduction, this system could cost up to $2,400 more from May to December this year than it did at the end of 2025. And it will cost more again from January 2026 when China’s battery VAT rebate is completely eliminated and a further CHP reduction occurs.
However, you should not rush into a purchase
Don’t let FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) be the main reason you make a purchase decision, because that’s when bad things happen. Everything you need to know about buying a solar fountain can be found in our Solar 101 guide.
As for the batteries, even if you were to order one today from a good installer, expect to wait 6 weeks or even longer for installation. Keep in mind that the amount of federal reimbursement you receive depends on when the system was installed, not when the purchase agreement was signed.
Whatever you end up spending, even with the federal rebate, it will be a significant amount and you’ll be living with your battery for a long time, so it’s best to get it right the first time. The SolarQuotes comprehensive guide to home batteries will help you achieve this goal.
Also check out our home battery reviews section, which features reviews and ratings of a range of brands from Australian customers. Based on these reviews, we have compiled a list of the ten best solar battery brands, which will be updated regularly as new reviews come in and the situation changes.
From an installer’s perspective, you can see which installers in our network voted the Best Solar Batteries of 2025 in this year’s SolarQuotes Installers Choice Awards.
Fun fact: The vast majority of solar panels purchased in Australia are manufactured in China. According to various reports, more than 90% of the modules installed here come from this country (some estimates go as high as 96%). And according to a 2024 report from consultancy SunWiz, Chinese manufacturers accounted for more than 70% of Australia’s solar battery sector at the time.
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