Solar energy and house battery systems will probably cost the Australians more due to discounts. However, other factors that go beyond our banks could exert pressure on local system prices.
What happens to solar and battery prices?
On January 1, 2026, the planned discounts in Australia are played for solar and battery systems. The manufacturers of Solar Panel manufacturers in China warn the international buyers that prices will increase in this quarter and 2026 due to the intervention of the Chinese government, and the battery prices will also go north.
Let’s take a look at the local discount situation in 2026.
It is about this time of year when we usually see the advertising screaming that solar discounts will soon be reduced to achieve sales. This year, however, due to the enormous demand from the cheaper Home -Batteries program, it can be a little steamed, whereby many books from Solar installers are still full with battery installations.
Reduction of the solar panel discount on January 1, 2026
The Australian solar panel discount works under the SRES (Renewable Energy Program for Renewable Energy) and is based on small technology certificates (STCS). These are virtual pieces of paper that have a added value that fluctuates with the market conditions. Although their value was quite consistent this year. The value of the STCS (minus administrator fees) is offered as a preliminary discount at the costs of a system.
In view of the fact that the SRES works, eligible solar systems are entitled to fewer certificates per year. The reduction takes place every year on January 1st until it goes to zero in 2031.
For example, a 10 -kW -solar panel system, which is installed in Brisbane1 this year, has 82 STCs. Based on an estimated STC value of $ 36 after fees (and administrative fees can vary), which affect $ 2,952 from the preliminary paying of a solar power system. However, the same system that was installed on January 1, 2026 has only 69 STCs. That is ~ $ 2.484; About $ 468 less.
Return of the home battery rabatt on January 1, 2026
The recently launched program for cheaper home batteries also works in a similar way under the SRES and with STCs. Reduced every year on January 1st.
For example, a 13 kWh battery in question is currently entitled to 120 STCs. The value of these STCS fees according to the administrator is somewhat higher-in general about $ 37, which in this case represents a discount of around $ 4,440. On January 1, 2026, the same battery is entitled to 109 STCs or a discount of around $ 4,033 $ 407 less.
From January 2026, it will cost around 875 US dollars for a 10 -kW sun system with a battery of 13 kWh between the solar panel and the battery rabatt.
You can get an idea of the potential financial effects on other system sizes with the solar quotes Solar STC computer and battery rabat calculator. Both are very quick and easy to use.
There is another factor that goes beyond our banks, which could also put pressure on local prices onto the market.
Chinese government market intervention
In an ongoing pinch of war, especially in the supply chain of the solar panel, the Chinese government tried to restore order.
Polysilicon consolidation and delivery production cuts
The production of polysilicium – a crucial material in the production of conventional solar cells – has taken in in recent years, which has led to massive oversupply and low prices.
According to research company Wood Mackenzie:
“New state guidelines have a limited expansion and prescribed usage reductions that have reduced the production rates of leading manufacturers to 55-70%.”
This graphic from Bernreuter Research tells the history of a low point this year from around $ 4 per kilogram for the polysilicon material from N-China to a price of approx. 6.35 USD/kg last week.
However, Bernreuter also notes that stricter requirements are reportedly the production capacity of China’s polysilicon from 3.5 million tons (MT) by 31.4% to 2.4 million MT. This estimate is considered premature and unlikely whether it does not have a material of the mixture. It is also determined that a new energy consumption standard for polysilicium plants will only be effective at the end of 2026.
Cancellation of export discounts
In this quarter, however, the Chinese government also dropped a discount that was previously applied to exports of panels and energy storage systems, according to Wood Mackenzie.
“Since China provides over 80% of the global solar zodules and 90% of the lithium -iron -iron -phosphate -akku battery packs used in energy, this change in the guidelines will have a direct impact on global benchmark prices.”
The situation in China is probably not a scenario with the sky, the Australian solar buyers pay attention to the current low costs for solar systems and the falling battery prices for the home battery, but combined with discounts, all effects are not welcomed.
So it seems that we could move out of a phase in which solar collectors in particular are not sustainable in a new phase in which they are only very cheap.
Do not hurry a system purchase
Paying more for anything may be an unpleasant perspective, but to buy something that is not suitable for the purpose or is even worse. In view of the level of competition in the Australian market for solar and battery markets of the Australian home, it is not clear how much net effects will have all of this.
With some (predominantly battery) installers who are fully booked by the end of the year, it is a good time for potential buyers to get a breath, and the time to research their options before the calendar deals until 2026 to ensure that they receive the best discount (and their own) monetary values if they ultimately make a purchase decision.
The popular 101 guides from Solarquotes tell you everything you need to know about understanding, buying and possessing solar energy and battery systems.
Footnot
- STC claims for Solar -PV vary depending on the region or “zones”. They stay the same for batteries. ↩
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